Bayer sustainability chief says it’s ‘foolish’ to use <2.5°C scenario for business planning
Matthias Berninger says success of firm’s seed development programme depends on ‘realistic baseline projections’
Bayer’s sustainability head has said it would be “foolish” to use a climate scenario that projected warming of less than 2.5°C for its seed breeding programmes.
Experts at the firm will soon convene to decide which temperature model should underpin the work, but Matthias Berninger took to social media on Tuesday to rule out the viability of scenarios at or below 2.5°C.
The executive vice president of public affairs, science and sustainability at Bayer said Bayer must “operate from realistic baseline projections” if it wants to bring seeds to market that can continue to increase yields.
“Proposing anything below (or even at) 2.5 degrees Celsius as a realistic basis for our work feels foolish to me at this point – especially given the serious problem that the actual temperature increases on farmland vary significantly and often are more than double the global average,” Berninger wrote on LinkedIn.
He stressed that seed breeding will be “profoundly affected” by climate change, given its long time horizons.
“Bear in mind that it takes between 10 and 15 years to bring a new seed variety to the market – so anything breeders are working on today for launch in the next decade will be profoundly affected by these climate shifts.”
Real Economy Progress asked Bayer which scenarios it currently uses for its seed-breeding business, but a spokesperson declined to comment, saying only that the company factors in “multiple aspects and scenarios”.
According to a 2022 climate programme document, Bayer uses two scenarios to anticipate climate impacts on its broader business: an “optimistic” one of below 2°C by 2100, and a “rocky road” based on the world’s actual trajectory of 3.6°C.
Berninger reflected on the state of national climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, saying “current promises are far too weak to cap temperature rise at 1.5 degrees Celsius, or even well below 2 degrees Celsius”.
You can read more about the state of current national pledges here.
His comments were echoed by environmental consultant DNV this week.
In its latest report on the global energy transition outlook, its CEO, Remi Eriksen, said that “the world will not achieve net-zero emissions by 2050”.
“This means warming will exceed 1.5°C and then increase relentlessly until we reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero.”
The report maintains its prediction that the economy will shift from an 80:20 fossil fuel/ non-fossil fuel energy mix to a 50:50 one by 2050.